Real estate in the time of COVID-19

At the start of the year, I read an article about the 10 biggest threats to the global economy in 2020, written by a prestigious international organization. “Global pandemic” did not make the list, which goes to show how generally lousy we humans are at accurately predicting the future. As such, any predictions that I (or anyone else) could give you about how this pandemic will unfold, in terms of its impact on the local real estate market, would likely fare no better than random chance. Similarly, with the situation evolving so rapidly, any advice or best practices I could offer today may become obsolete in short order.
So, rather than peddle advice and predictions, let’s pause and take stock.
Nationally:
Back in 2008, the financial crisis was sparked in the real estate sector and led to a crisis that nearly collapsed the banking system. We see from history that recessions that begin in the housing sector tend to be worse and last longer than recessions ignited by other factors. Today, the recession we are likely heading into has a very different background — our economy and housing market were far stronger and more resilient, thanks in part to the measures put in place after that recession (tighter lending restrictions, more stringent liquidity requirements for banks, etc.). In fact, we were enjoying the longest economic expansion since WWII.
According to National Association of Realtors chief economist Dr. Lawrence Yun, “Conditions today are very different than the last boom/bust cycle. In 2004, we had a huge oversupply of new homes. In 2019, we still had a huge undersupply of new homes. In fact, we haven’t been building enough new homes to keep up with demand in over a decade. During the last downturn, there was the subprime factor and the variable interest rate. Now there are fewer variable rate mortgages and virtually no sub-prime mortgages.”
Colorado and Boulder County outperform the nation:
Colorado is well-positioned as a top economy nationally. Real GDP growth in Colorado ranked seventh in the nation year-over-year, and the state’s five-year average ranks fifth, according to economist Rich Wobbekind with CU-Boulder’s Leeds School of Business. Wobbekind says that Boulder County’s economy has been outgrowing the state economy, and is uniquely able to weather a recession. Boulder County’s economic vitality is fueled by a highly educated workforce and diverse ecosystem of industries including government research facilities, aerospace, biotechnology, cleantech, and information technology — industries that endure in the long term.
Boulder ranks number one in the nation for home value stability and growth for the fifth consecutive year, according to SmartAsset. As discussed in our recently published real estate report, based on our extensive data and market analysis, we have had a healthy housing market through 2019. Even through the grim days of the Great Recession, home prices in Boulder County declined only by 5 percent and recovered quickly post-recession. If you held onto your home for at least six years, there is no period when you would have lost money on your investment here.
Summing up:
While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the real estate market in our area has a history of weathering recent recessions better than other places and recovering more quickly after the storm has passed. Given everything that is going on, I still believe that owning property in Boulder Valley is and will continue to be an excellent investment.
Be well and do what you can to flatten the curve. Stay home.
The end may be here (but don’t panic)

At this time last year, our market was experiencing all-time highs for average home prices and all-time lows for housing inventory. Many of the market indicators we track were pointing to continued strong demand and price appreciation, especially with the continued influx of people into Boulder and Broomfield counties. And yet, with home price appreciation outstripping wage gains for the better part of a decade, in the back of everyone’s minds was the question: “How long can this go on?” We may now be starting to get our answer.
The big picture
In 2018 last summer, the Federal Housing Finance Agency measured the average appreciation nationally at 6.89 percent which slowed this year to 5.05 percent. Then, FHFA ranked Colorado as having the fourth-highest one-year appreciation in the country, at 10.63 percent. Boulder County ranked 68th among metropolitan areas in the country with 8.25 percent appreciation. This year, Colorado has dropped to 28th, with 4.78 percent appreciation, while Boulder fell to number 91 with 6.14 percent appreciation So, Colorado and Boulder County are cooling compared to the rest of the country, but, as a bright spot, Boulder County’s appreciation since 1991 still leads the entire nation at 417.28 percent.
There are 10 statistics we track to gauge the state of the residential real estate market, and studying the movement of these indicators can give you a good sense of the direction of the market. For most of this decade, those indicators have generally pointed toward a rising market, marked by tight inventory, brisk appreciation, quick sales, and low months of inventory (the time it would take to sell all existing homes if no new homes entered the market). At the close of the second quarter of 2019, we are seeing a strong shift for both the single-family homes and attached dwellings (see charts).
As you can see, nearly every indicator we track is pointing to a softening, shifting market, aside from interest rates. And while Months of Inventory still indicates a seller’s market, the trajectory is moving toward a balanced market (between five and seven months of inventory).
And now for the good news
If you are an aspiring buyer in Boulder County, your timing is excellent: inventory is up, so you have more homes to choose from; prices are flat or falling, so you may be able to get a (relative) bargain; and interest rates have dropped once again, so you can get more house for the money.
If you are a homeowner or thinking of selling, the news is not all bad: you’ve rode an impressive wave of appreciation for the better part of a decade; and even when Boulder’s market stalls, it typically does not lose much value (even in the great recession, home prices only dropped about 5 percent).
Remember, don’t panic. Boulder is still the best place in the country to invest in real estate.
Originally posted by Jay Kalinski is broker/owner of Re/Max of Boulder.
RE/MAX Elevate Calls Louisville Home

Why Louisville and why now?
Those are the questions RE/MAX Elevate, the sister franchise of RE/MAX of Boulder, had to answer when deciding whether to put roots down there with its first office. And the answers came easy. Louisville is to many the unofficial “Capital” of East Boulder County. Business booms there, school are great, families love it, and it’s been recognized numerous times in the national media as one of the safest and best places to live in the nation (Money Magazine’s “Best Places to Live” in 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015, and 2017, one of the “20 Safest Places to Live in Colorado” by Elite Personal Finance, and among the “10 Best Towns for Families in the U.S.” by Family Circle Magazine). Louisville is a great little city. In fact, 78 percent of respondents to a citizen survey rated Louisville as an “excellent” place to live.
So it was with much excitement that RE/MAX Elevate planted its flag at 724 Main Street and had its grand opening on May 1. The public was invited to enjoy a ribbon cutting ceremony with Shelley Angell, executive director of the Louisville Chamber of Commerce, live music by Louisville musician Johnny O., wine and sangria tasting with local Decadent Saint winery thanks to Premier Lending LLC, small bites by local Wildcraft Kitchen, desserts from Bittersweet Café & Confections, and flower arrangements donated by Red Door Flowers. RE/MAX Elevate thanks the sponsors and vendors who made it such a special day in Louisville.
It is with much excitement that RE/MAX Elevate planted its flag at 724 Main Street in Louisville and had its grand opening on May 1. (Photo: Jonathan Castner)
RE/MAX Elevate Broker/Owner Jay Kalinski. “It’s an ideal place to live and do business with a great quality of life. We Heart Louisville. That’s the sentiment you’ll see on t-shirts and stickers for RE/MAX Elevate.”
Jay says that for those who want a little more space to live in, along with the beauty and amenities of Boulder County, Louisville is a remarkably attractive choice.
Lest our readers think this is a case of a national “chain” without ties to the community setting up shop in a hot market, a brief history lesson is helpful.
RE/MAX of Boulder was founded 42 years ago in Boulder by Tom Kalinski. At the time it opened for business, it was only the third RE/MAX franchise in the United States. RE/MAX of Boulder has been the No. 1 company in Boulder Valley home sales for more than 30 of its 42 years and the No. 1 single RE/MAX office in the U.S. 8 times. The company has more than 100 award-winning Realtors who are among the best in the nation, averaging more than 15 years of experience. They are seasoned experts with the utmost dedication to clients, going far beyond the extra mile to help them navigate an often challenging market. Jay became Co-Owner of RE/MAX of Boulder in 2012 and helped further expand the company to where it is today, serving as Broker/Owner for several years.
While Jay remains co-owner of RE/MAX of Boulder, he has turned Broker duties back over to Tom, so he can focus on expanding RE/MAX Elevate. Jay is a Boulder native, CU-Boulder alumnus, and Tom’s son. Jay, a lawyer and military veteran, says, “We’re thrilled to introduce RE/MAX Elevate to Louisville, where many of our founding real estate agents – and their families – live, work, and go to school, and where our clients are selling or searching for homes. We are rooted in the community.”
Jay has been a licensed broker for 10 years and a licensed attorney for 14 years having worked at several prominent law firms and serving 4 ½ years on active duty as an Air Force JAG officer. “We are committed to the city of Louisville, East Boulder County, Broomfield, and beyond,” Jay says. “And as a small local veteran-owned business, we are excited to be actively involved in the local entrepreneurial community and with nonprofits and community organizations and to support the vitality and wellbeing of the community.”
Manager Tammy Milano with Broker/Owner Jay Kalinski
Realtors in both offices have donated gift baskets from Louisville businesses for a free drawing, which kicked off during the grand opening party. Drop by any day during business hours in May to enter. Tickets will be drawn and winners announced during the Taste of Louisville on June 1. And to celebrate the opening of the new office, RE/MAX Elevate is sponsoring the Louisville Public Library’s Summer Reading Program. RE/MAX Elevate along with RE/MAX of Boulder are giving back to the community by co-sponsoring the Louisville Downtown Street Faire on Friday nights thoughout the summer.
Jenni Hlawatsch, owner of The Singing Cook, the business next door to RE/MAX Elevate where she continues to be a neighbor, is looking ahead as she welcomes the new office. She says, “While I’ll miss my Book Cellar neighbors, I look forward to the new business relationship with Jay and the RE/MAX Elevate team who are eager to support and get involved in all the goings on in downtown Louisville.”
“We’re delighted to welcome RE/MAX Elevate to downtown Louisville,” says Louisville Mayor Bob Muckle. “Their contributions to the local economy and strong tradition of community involvement will be a win for us all.”
RE/MAX Elevate is a member of the Louisville Chamber of Commerce and the Louisville Downtown Business Association.
RE/MAX Elevate, 724 Main St., Louisville; 303.974.5005; elevatedrealestate.com. Hours are: M-F 10:00 AM – 5:00 PM; Sa/Sun 11:00 AM-4:00 PM
By Darren Thornberry, At Home
Photos by Jonathan Castner and Flatirons Pro Media
Originally Posted by RE/MAX of Boulder