At the start of the year, I read an article about the 10 biggest threats to the global economy in 2020, written by a prestigious international organization. “Global pandemic” did not make the list, which goes to show how generally lousy we humans are at accurately predicting the future. As such, any predictions that I (or anyone else) could give you about how this pandemic will unfold, in terms of its impact on the local real estate market, would likely fare no better than random chance. Similarly, with the situation evolving so rapidly, any advice or best practices I could offer today may become obsolete in short order.
So, rather than peddle advice and predictions, let’s pause and take stock.
Back in 2008, the financial crisis was sparked in the real estate sector and led to a crisis that nearly collapsed the banking system. We see from history that recessions that begin in the housing sector tend to be worse and last longer than recessions ignited by other factors. Today, the recession we are likely heading into has a very different background — our economy and housing market were far stronger and more resilient, thanks in part to the measures put in place after that recession (tighter lending restrictions, more stringent liquidity requirements for banks, etc.). In fact, we were enjoying the longest economic expansion since WWII.
According to National Association of Realtors chief economist Dr. Lawrence Yun, “Conditions today are very different than the last boom/bust cycle. In 2004, we had a huge oversupply of new homes. In 2019, we still had a huge undersupply of new homes. In fact, we haven’t been building enough new homes to keep up with demand in over a decade. During the last downturn, there was the subprime factor and the variable interest rate. Now there are fewer variable rate mortgages and virtually no sub-prime mortgages.”
Colorado is well-positioned as a top economy nationally. Real GDP growth in Colorado ranked seventh in the nation year-over-year, and the state’s five-year average ranks fifth, according to economist Rich Wobbekind with CU-Boulder’s Leeds School of Business. Wobbekind says that Boulder County’s economy has been outgrowing the state economy, and is uniquely able to weather a recession. Boulder County’s economic vitality is fueled by a highly educated workforce and diverse ecosystem of industries including government research facilities, aerospace, biotechnology, cleantech, and information technology — industries that endure in the long term.
Boulder ranks number one in the nation for home value stability and growth for the fifth consecutive year, according to SmartAsset. As discussed in our recently published real estate report, based on our extensive data and market analysis, we have had a healthy housing market through 2019. Even through the grim days of the Great Recession, home prices in Boulder County declined only by 5 percent and recovered quickly post-recession. If you held onto your home for at least six years, there is no period when you would have lost money on your investment here.
While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the real estate market in our area has a history of weathering recent recessions better than other places and recovering more quickly after the storm has passed. Given everything that is going on, I still believe that owning property in Boulder Valley is and will continue to be an excellent investment.
Be well and do what you can to flatten the curve. Stay home.
Denver International Airport ranked No. 1 in the U.S, reports international air transport researchers at Skytrax in the 2018 annual airport awards.
In a separate Skytrax ranking of regional airports by continent, Denver is the No. 1 airport in North America and No. 5 regional airport in the world.
More than 13 million international air travelers around the world surveyed for the awards voted Singapore Changi the top airport in the world for the third year in a row. Denver – ranking 29th in the world – claimed the top ranking spot for U.S. airports. Denver is followed by No. 34 Cincinnati, No. 48 Houston International, and Nos. 50 and 51 Atlanta and San Francisco, respectively.
Travelers were surveyed from August 2017 to February 2018, covering 550 airports worldwide and evaluating traveler experiences including check-in, arrivals, transfers, shopping, security, and immigration through to departure at the gate.
But that’s not all. In a separate airport satisfaction survey conducted by J.D. Power Ratings in 2017, DIA pulled a score of 763 out of 1,000, ranking fourth. Orlando International Airport ranks highest in satisfaction among mega airports, with a score of 778. Detroit Metropolitan Wayne County Airport (767) ranks second, and McCarran International Airport and Phoenix Sky Harbor International Airport (765) tied for third.
The survey found overall passenger satisfaction with North American airports has reached an all-time high.
“Capacity has become a huge challenge for North American airports, with many reporting 100% of available parking spots being filled and large airports, such as Orlando International, setting passenger volume records each month for more than three years straight,” said Michael Taylor, Travel Practice Lead at J.D. Power. “Despite these difficulties, airports are responding with new technology and old-fashioned personal skills to win over harried travelers. These range from smartphone apps that tell travelers where to find a parking spot to therapy dogs—and in one case, a therapy pig—mingling with travelers to relieve stress and improve the overall airport experience.”
Nearly every U.S. airport – faced with high passenger capacity and ongoing construction projects to address increased demand – is using technology to help address these issues. Sacramento International Airport developed a smartphone app that tells travelers where to find a parking spot, and airports nationwide have invested heavily in improving phone-charging stations and internet access in their terminals.
The J.D. Powers study, now in its 12th year, measures overall traveler satisfaction by examining six factors: terminal facilities; airport accessibility; security check; baggage claim; check-in/baggage check; food, beverage and retail. It is based on responses from 34,695 North American travelers who traveled through at least one domestic airport with both departure and arrival experiences during the past three months.
For more on the Skytrax Awards see: http://www.worldairportawards.com/Awards/world_airport_rating.html and http://www.worldairportawards.com/Awards/worlds_best_regional_airports.html
For the full J.D. Power ratings see: http://www.jdpower.com/press-releases/jd-power-2017-north-america-airport-satisfaction-study