At the start of the year, I read an article about the 10 biggest threats to the global economy in 2020, written by a prestigious international organization. “Global pandemic” did not make the list, which goes to show how generally lousy we humans are at accurately predicting the future. As such, any predictions that I (or anyone else) could give you about how this pandemic will unfold, in terms of its impact on the local real estate market, would likely fare no better than random chance. Similarly, with the situation evolving so rapidly, any advice or best practices I could offer today may become obsolete in short order.
So, rather than peddle advice and predictions, let’s pause and take stock.
Back in 2008, the financial crisis was sparked in the real estate sector and led to a crisis that nearly collapsed the banking system. We see from history that recessions that begin in the housing sector tend to be worse and last longer than recessions ignited by other factors. Today, the recession we are likely heading into has a very different background — our economy and housing market were far stronger and more resilient, thanks in part to the measures put in place after that recession (tighter lending restrictions, more stringent liquidity requirements for banks, etc.). In fact, we were enjoying the longest economic expansion since WWII.
According to National Association of Realtors chief economist Dr. Lawrence Yun, “Conditions today are very different than the last boom/bust cycle. In 2004, we had a huge oversupply of new homes. In 2019, we still had a huge undersupply of new homes. In fact, we haven’t been building enough new homes to keep up with demand in over a decade. During the last downturn, there was the subprime factor and the variable interest rate. Now there are fewer variable rate mortgages and virtually no sub-prime mortgages.”
Colorado is well-positioned as a top economy nationally. Real GDP growth in Colorado ranked seventh in the nation year-over-year, and the state’s five-year average ranks fifth, according to economist Rich Wobbekind with CU-Boulder’s Leeds School of Business. Wobbekind says that Boulder County’s economy has been outgrowing the state economy, and is uniquely able to weather a recession. Boulder County’s economic vitality is fueled by a highly educated workforce and diverse ecosystem of industries including government research facilities, aerospace, biotechnology, cleantech, and information technology — industries that endure in the long term.
Boulder ranks number one in the nation for home value stability and growth for the fifth consecutive year, according to SmartAsset. As discussed in our recently published real estate report, based on our extensive data and market analysis, we have had a healthy housing market through 2019. Even through the grim days of the Great Recession, home prices in Boulder County declined only by 5 percent and recovered quickly post-recession. If you held onto your home for at least six years, there is no period when you would have lost money on your investment here.
While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the real estate market in our area has a history of weathering recent recessions better than other places and recovering more quickly after the storm has passed. Given everything that is going on, I still believe that owning property in Boulder Valley is and will continue to be an excellent investment.
Be well and do what you can to flatten the curve. Stay home.
Colorado ranked as the No. 5 most innovative state in the U.S. and the achievement comes with perks.
For example, innovation is a principal driver of U.S. economic growth, reports WalletHub, which points toward good news for Colorado’s economic outlook.
“In 2019, the U.S. will spend an estimated $581 billion on research and development — more than any other country in the world and about 25 percent of the world’s total — helping the nation rank No. 6 on the Global Innovation Index,” writes WalletHub in its recently released study of Least & Most Innovative States.
The study compared 50 states and the District of Columbia across 24 indicators of innovation-friendliness, ranging from share of STEM professionals to tech-company density.
The top five states and their corresponding scores out of 100 are:
No. 1 Massachusetts, 72.31
No. 2 Washington, 68.03
No. 3 District of Columbia, 67.47
No. 4 Maryland, 64.06
No. 5 Colorado, 63.35
“Certain states deserve more credit than others for America’s dominance in the tech era. These states continue to grow innovation through investments in education, research and business creation, especially in highly specialized industries,” notes WalletHub.
Colorado also ranked in the top 10 for six metrics, including tied for No. 1 in eighth-grade math and science performance, No. 5 for share of STEM professionals and share of technology companies, No. 6 for projected STEM-job demand, and No. 7 for venture capital funding per capita.
What makes Colorado so innovative?
WalletHub compared two dimensions across 24 metrics, “Human Capital” and “Innovation Environment.”
Human Capital includes:
- Share of STEM Professionals
- Share of Science & Engineering Graduates
- Projected STEM-Job Demand by 2020
- Scientific-Knowledge Output
- Eighth-Grade Math & Science Performance
- AP Exam Participation
Innovation Environment includes:
- Share of Technology Companies
- R&D Spending per Capita
- R&D Intensity
- Invention Patents per Capita
- IP Services Exports as a Share of All Services Exports
- Business Churn
- Jobs in New Companies
- Net Migration
- Entrepreneurial Activity
- Number of Startups “Accelerated” per Total Number of Start-ups
- Venture-Capital Funding per Capita
- Average Annual Federal Small-Business Funding per GDP
- Industry-Cluster Strength
- Open Roads & Skies Friendly Laws
- Average Internet Speed
- Share of Households with Internet Access
- Adoption of K–12 Computer Science Standards, Note that this metric was chosen because WalletHub considers most future innovation will be tech enabled.
For more information visit https://wallethub.com/edu/most-innovative-states/31890
Originally Posted by Tom Kalinski Founder RE/MAX of Boulder on Tuesday, April 16th, 2019