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Real estate in the time of COVID-19
At the start of the year, I read an article about the 10 biggest threats to the global economy in 2020, written by a prestigious international organization. “Global pandemic” did not make the list, which goes to show how generally lousy we humans are at accurately predicting the future. As such, any predictions that I (or anyone else) could give you about how this pandemic will unfold, in terms of its impact on the local real estate market, would likely fare no better than random chance. Similarly, with the situation evolving so rapidly, any advice or best practices I could offer today may become obsolete in short order.
So, rather than peddle advice and predictions, let’s pause and take stock.
Nationally:
Back in 2008, the financial crisis was sparked in the real estate sector and led to a crisis that nearly collapsed the banking system. We see from history that recessions that begin in the housing sector tend to be worse and last longer than recessions ignited by other factors. Today, the recession we are likely heading into has a very different background — our economy and housing market were far stronger and more resilient, thanks in part to the measures put in place after that recession (tighter lending restrictions, more stringent liquidity requirements for banks, etc.). In fact, we were enjoying the longest economic expansion since WWII.
According to National Association of Realtors chief economist Dr. Lawrence Yun, “Conditions today are very different than the last boom/bust cycle. In 2004, we had a huge oversupply of new homes. In 2019, we still had a huge undersupply of new homes. In fact, we haven’t been building enough new homes to keep up with demand in over a decade. During the last downturn, there was the subprime factor and the variable interest rate. Now there are fewer variable rate mortgages and virtually no sub-prime mortgages.”
Colorado and Boulder County outperform the nation:
Colorado is well-positioned as a top economy nationally. Real GDP growth in Colorado ranked seventh in the nation year-over-year, and the state’s five-year average ranks fifth, according to economist Rich Wobbekind with CU-Boulder’s Leeds School of Business. Wobbekind says that Boulder County’s economy has been outgrowing the state economy, and is uniquely able to weather a recession. Boulder County’s economic vitality is fueled by a highly educated workforce and diverse ecosystem of industries including government research facilities, aerospace, biotechnology, cleantech, and information technology — industries that endure in the long term.
Boulder ranks number one in the nation for home value stability and growth for the fifth consecutive year, according to SmartAsset. As discussed in our recently published real estate report, based on our extensive data and market analysis, we have had a healthy housing market through 2019. Even through the grim days of the Great Recession, home prices in Boulder County declined only by 5 percent and recovered quickly post-recession. If you held onto your home for at least six years, there is no period when you would have lost money on your investment here.
Summing up:
While past performance is no guarantee of future results, the real estate market in our area has a history of weathering recent recessions better than other places and recovering more quickly after the storm has passed. Given everything that is going on, I still believe that owning property in Boulder Valley is and will continue to be an excellent investment.
Be well and do what you can to flatten the curve. Stay home.
Where have all the buyers gone?
A well-functioning market consists of two sides: suppliers who offer a particular good for sale and consumers who purchase those goods. In the Boulder Valley residential real estate market since 2012, there have been more consumers looking to buy homes than there were sellers offering homes for sale, which has led to a long appreciation period for homes. Now, however, it appears that the number of buyers is dropping as is their willingness to pay ever-increasing prices.
Spotting the trend
First, how do we know that there are fewer buyers in the market? The most direct measure of buyer activity that my company tracks (courtesy of Broker Associate Mike Malec) is the number of showings per available listing. From examining the data, it is fairly easy to see that this year’s showing activity is markedly below the recent boom years, but is still above the levels present during the recession.
Second, to further substantiate this decline in buyer activity, we can look at more indirect measures, such as average sales prices, available inventory of homes on the market, and average time a home will be on the market before sale. Each of these markers indicates a decline in buyer activity. Through May of this year, the average price of a single-family home in Boulder has fallen 0.6 percent, while the average attached unit has fallen 4 percent, compared to the same timeframe last year. This indicates that there are fewer buyers competing for available homes to the point where home appreciation rates have stalled. At the same time, the amount of homes available on the market has increased nearly 20 percent for single-family homes and almost 50 percent for attached ones, while the average time on the market for single family homes has gone up 5 percent and nearly 20 percent for attached ones. These statistics indicate that those buyers in the market are becoming choosier and are able to take their time making decisions.
Based on the above discussion, it seems that there are fewer buyers in the market and that those who are in the market are more cautious, but why?
Economic Conditions?
It does not appear that our local economic conditions explain the drop in buyer activity. According to the State Demographer’s office, people are continuing to move into Boulder and Broomfield counties, albeit at a slower rate than previous years (though the city of Boulder has seen its population declining in the last two years). And local unemployment levels continue to be historically low.
Economic conditions at the national level are softening, to the point where the Fed is discussing interest rate cuts, so these conditions may play some role. But, interest rates are actually about half a percent lower than they were at this time last year, which would appear to weaken that argument.
Could it be the weather?
Another possible explanation I’ve heard is that our unusually cold and snow winter could have suppressed buyer demand as people were less willing to trudge through the snow to go see houses. While this is plausible, all else being equal, we would have expected to see that pent up demand being released as the weather improves, but we just have not seen that play out in the data yet.
The takeaway
Whatever the cause of the decline in buyer activity may be, local real estate legend Larry Kendall of the Group Inc. Real Estate in Fort Collins always says that buyers are the smartest people in the market, so they may be acting as the proverbial canary in a coal mine, meaning that they could be a leading indicator that our market is shifting from a seller’s market to either a balanced or buyer’s market. If you are a seller, be wary of pricing above the market in these shifting conditions.
Originally posted by Jay Kalinski is broker/owner of Re/Max of Boulder.
Boulder’s Economic Confidence Highest in U.S.
Boulder leads the nation for the most positive economic outlook, followed by two other Colorado cities in the top 10 — No. 3 Fort Collins and No. 9 Denver. According to the recent survey by Indeed.com, a positive economic outlook is driven largely by where you live more than by a national or political view of a national economy.
Colorado is the only state with three cities in Indeed’s top 10. Smaller mountain-state metro area residents performed well when surveyed about the economy and their personal outlook. Tech hubs also fared well, such as the San Francisco Bay Area, Austin, and Raleigh.
The following 10 U.S. cities have the highest economic confidence, according to Indeed.com:
- Boulder, CO
- Provo-Orem, UT
- Fort Collins, CO
- San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
- Boise, ID
- Ann Arbor, MI
- San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
- Austin, Round Rock, TX
- Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
- Raleigh, NC
For the 2,000 American adults nationwide surveyed on politics and attitudes about the economy, local economic conditions such as lower unemployment, faster job growth, and a more educated workforce correlate with local economic confidence.
Nine percent describe their regional economic conditions as excellent and 51 percent say their economies are good. To analyze the local influence on economic perspective, Indeed combined answers to survey questions with data on local job markets. Five factors were found to drive local economic confidence:
- Personal finances – 81 percent of respondents rate their personal financial situation as excellent or good and say the same about local economic conditions.
- National economic view – 83 percent who rate national economics as excellent or good say the same about local economic conditions. The survey found that views of the national economic situation are also strongly influenced by politics, with 73 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of Democrats rating national economic conditions excellent or good.
- Local unemployment rate – Respondents in areas with lower unemployment rates have a more positive economic outlook. The outlook is likely driven by the view that a lower unemployment rate results in more job opportunities and bargaining power for workers, which should translate into faster wage growth.
- Higher local job growth – Job growth where you live means expanding opportunities and rising home prices. The majority of homeowners like this combined dynamic.
- Highly educated populations – For those who live in areas where a larger percentage of adults have a college degree – such as the Denver-metro area – there is a correlation with higher earnings and more spending power.
People are more optimistic when they live in places that are doing well economically. That holds true for those who live in Colorado where unemployment rates continue to be among the lowest in the nation and job growth remains strong.
Yahoo Finance article: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-u-s-cities-highest-economic-confidence-170140863.html
Indeed’s full report at: https://www.hiringlab.org/2018/11/27/local-economic-confidence/
Colorado Economy Resurges, Adds Thousands More Jobs
Colorado’s economy continues to expand in 2018, even after signaling a slowdown at the beginning of the year. Job growth was revised upward to 2.4 percent growth for the year, according to the mid-year economic report from the Leeds Business Research Division at the University of Colorado Boulder.
The rebound follows a slowing of employment growth last September to less than 1.9 percent – the lowest level in almost six years. In June 2018, job growth increased 2.8 percent year-over-year.
The increase means about 15,000 more jobs than expected will be added through 2018, bringing the total to 62,000 new jobs by the end of the year.
The state’s gross domestic product also rose 4.5 percent year-over-year for first quarter 2018. The increase shows Colorado’s economy is continuing to grow after slowing to just 1.4 percent in 2016— the lowest level since 2010. Economic output rose to 3.6 percent in 2017.
Meanwhile, Colorado still has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation, logged in June 2018 at 2.7 percent. While fewer people have been moving to Colorado – dropping from 67,781 in 2016 to 46,626 in 2017 – more Coloradans are going into the labor force. The increase in workers has enabled continued employment growth, despite the decrease of people moving to the state.
Sectors leading the way in job growth are natural resources and mining, and construction.
Natural resources and mining have shown strong employment growth, according to Business Research Division Executive Director Richard Wobbekind. “Energy prices are obviously factoring into it,” Wobbekind notes.
The construction industry is “finally back to the same level of employment that they were at pre-recession. They are really mostly constrained by lack of available workforce,” he says.
While a shortage of skilled labor continues to challenge the construction industry, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows construction employment across the state was 171,200 in June 2018, a 5.2 percent year-over-year increase. This surpasses the last peak of 170,100 in July 2007. Average annual pay for construction workers was $59,446 in 2017, slightly above the average Colorado pay of $56,916.
Agriculture’s outlook is not as robust, however. Drought, wildfires, and low prices are slowing growth. For example, corn prices have declined more than 30 percent from five years ago.
“It’s a tough road to hoe in some of the rural areas,” Wobbekind said.
Read the full Mid-Year Economic Update at https://www.colorado.edu/business/2018/08/17/state-economy-adding-thousands-more-jobs-expected-report-predicts
Originally posted here by Tom Kalinski Founder RE/MAX of Boulder on Wednesday, October 31st, 2018 at 11:01am.