Where have all the buyers gone?

well-functioning market consists of two sides: suppliers who offer a particular good for sale and consumers who purchase those goods.  In the Boulder Valley residential real estate market since 2012, there have been more consumers looking to buy homes than there were sellers offering homes for sale, which has led to a long appreciation period for homes.  Now, however, it appears that the number of buyers is dropping as is their willingness to pay ever-increasing prices.

Spotting the trend

First, how do we know that there are fewer buyers in the market?  The most direct measure of buyer activity that my company tracks (courtesy of Broker Associate Mike Malec) is the number of showings per available listing.  From examining the data, it is fairly easy to see that this year’s showing activity is markedly below the recent boom years, but is still above the levels present during the recession.

Second, to further substantiate this decline in buyer activity, we can look at more indirect measures, such as average sales prices, available inventory of homes on the market, and average time a home will be on the market before sale.  Each of these markers indicates a decline in buyer activity.  Through May of this year, the average price of a single-family home in Boulder has fallen 0.6 percent, while the average attached unit has fallen 4 percent, compared to the same timeframe last year.  This indicates that there are fewer buyers competing for available homes to the point where home appreciation rates have stalled.  At the same time, the amount of homes available on the market has increased nearly 20 percent for single-family homes and almost 50 percent for attached ones, while the average time on the market for single family homes has gone up 5 percent and nearly 20 percent for attached ones.  These statistics indicate that those buyers in the market are becoming choosier and are able to take their time making decisions.

Based on the above discussion, it seems that there are fewer buyers in the market and that those who are in the market are more cautious, but why? 

Economic Conditions?

It does not appear that our local economic conditions explain the drop in buyer activity.  According to the State Demographer’s office, people are continuing to move into Boulder and Broomfield counties, albeit at a slower rate than previous years (though the city of Boulder has seen its population declining in the last two years).  And local unemployment levels continue to be historically low. 

Economic conditions at the national level are softening, to the point where the Fed is discussing interest rate cuts, so these conditions may play some role.  But, interest rates are actually about half a percent lower than they were at this time last year, which would appear to weaken that argument.

Could it be the weather?

Another possible explanation I’ve heard is that our unusually cold and snow winter could have suppressed buyer demand as people were less willing to trudge through the snow to go see houses.  While this is plausible, all else being equal, we would have expected to see that pent up demand being released as the weather improves, but we just have not seen that play out in the data yet.

The takeaway

Whatever the cause of the decline in buyer activity may be, local real estate legend Larry Kendall of the Group Inc. Real Estate in Fort Collins always says that buyers are the smartest people in the market, so they may be acting as the proverbial canary in a coal mine, meaning that they could be a leading indicator that our market is shifting from a seller’s market to either a balanced or buyer’s market.  If you are a seller, be wary of pricing above the market in these shifting conditions.

Originally posted by Jay Kalinski is broker/owner of Re/Max of Boulder.

Posted on July 2, 2019 at 3:00 pm
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Top Places to Raise a Family in Boulder County

If you live in Boulder County, you know that all the ingredients needed to make a great place to raise a family are right here. So it’s no surprise that seven of Colorado’s top 25 places to raise a family in 2018 are in Boulder County, according to analysis by Niche.com.

Niche.com ranked the family friendliness of locations by assessing the quality of public schools, cost of living, crime rate, access to amenities, diversity, housing trends, employment statistics and percentage of households with children, among other characteristics. Data sources include U.S. Census Bureau data, the American Community Survey, FBI crime reports, and local surveys.

Most top 25 Colorado locations are in the Boulder area or the Denver metro area. Here are the Boulder County areas in the top 25 best places to raise a family in 2018:

#1 Pine Brook Hills

Pine Brook Hills is an unincorporated area just west of Boulder with a population of 1,091. According to Niche.com, many retirees live in Pine Brook Hills. 

Ranking on Key Attributes

Public Schools    A+

Housing               A

Good for Families  A+

 

#3 Louisville

The town of Louisville is in southeastern Boulder County. Amenities include 1,700 acres of open space, dozens of great eateries, a thriving arts scene, great schools, wonderful neighborhoods and a diverse mix of employment opportunities for its population of 19,972. 

Ranking on Key Attributes

Public Schools    A

Housing               B+

Good for Families  A+

 

#4 Superior

Located in southeastern Boulder County, the town of Superior has 594 acres of parks, greenspace, and open space and 27 miles of trails for its population of 12,928. Niche.com says many families and young professionals live in Superior.

Ranking on Key Attributes

Public Schools    A

Housing               B+

Good for Families  A+

 

#8  Gunbarrel

Gunbarrel is a mix of unincorporated county and city of Boulder lands, located just east of Boulder. Gunbarrel’s 9,559 residents enjoy craft breweries, coffee shops, trails and parks. Niche.com says many young professionals live in Gunbarrel.

Ranking on Key Attributes

Public Schools    A+

Housing               B

Good for Families  A+

 

#10 Boulder

Tucked into the foothills of the Rocky Mountains, the city of Boulder has a population of 105,420. Residents enjoy more than 45,000 acres of open space, 150 miles of trails, and 60 urban parks. The city is home to a thriving tech and natural foods industry and the University of Colorado Boulder. Niche.com says the public schools in Boulder are highly rated.

Ranking on Key Attributes

Public Schools    A+

Housing               C+

Good for Families  A+

 

#19 Niwot

Niwot is a small town in eastern Boulder County with a population of 4,588. Niwot offers craft breweries, coffee shops and a summer music program.

Ranking on Key Attributes

Public Schools    A

Housing               C+

Good for Families A

 

#24 Lafayette

The town of Lafayette is in eastern Boulder County with a population of 27,053 made up largely of families and young professionals. Lafayette has a parks system, greenbelts, bikeways, open space, and an attractive downtown featuring coffee shops and boutiques. 

Ranking on Key Attributes

Public Schools    A

Housing               B+

Good for Families A

 

For the full list of the top 25 most family-friendly communities in Colorado visit: https://www.niche.com/places-to-live/search/best-places-for-families/s/colorado/

To see average home prices in each Boulder County community, visit our website at boulderco.com and search “Communities.”

 

 

Originally posted by Tom Kalinski Founder RE/MAX of Boulder on Thursday, January 17th, 2019 at 11:13am.

Posted on January 18, 2019 at 9:09 pm
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November Sales Head in Opposite Directions

A tale of two markets emerged in November, as Boulder County’s single-family home sales skidded to a stop, while townhomes and condos took a significant leap forward.

Single-family home sales in the Boulder-area markets dropped 14.4 percent in November compared to October —310 vs. 362 homes—while condominium and townhome sales rose 14.5 percent—126 units vs. 110.

Yet when data for 2018’s first 11 months is considered, the two markets tracked closely together, and both appear to be slowing, according to Ken Hotard, senior vice president of public affairs for the Boulder Area Realtor® Association.

“This is the first month single-family home sales fell below last year, and condos and townhomes are only slightly ahead,” Hotard explains.

Year-to-date through November, sales of single-family homes decreased 1.4 percent compared to the prior year with 4,205 homes sold vs. 4,266. Attached home sales over the same period improved 3.3 percent – 1,445 vs. 1,399 units sold.

Inventory decreased in both housing categories, though more significantly for single-family homes, which dropped 13.1 percent in November compared to October with 821 vs. 945 Boulder County homes for sale. Condo/townhome inventory fell 6.1 percent in November compared to the previous month with 263 units for sale vs. 280.

“My guess is the growth of the townhome/condo market is due to a larger inventory and more affordable pricing,” says Hotard. “Interest rates are making people jumpy, but the reality is that mortgage rates are still historically low. The more complete view is the inventory and pricing dynamics of the Boulder-area markets.”

He notes that single-family home sales could recover in December, but it’s not likely.

“We have the ongoing headwinds of low inventory and rising prices. When we look back, we’ll see 2018 as market slowdown for housing in our market areas,” Hotard predicts.

Despite the slow-down in housing, Colorado’s economy continues to show strength, wage growth is increasing, and gross domestic product is up, according to recent news reports.

“What the Boulder-area needs is more housing that is desirable and more affordable for people,” adds Hotard.

 

Originally posted here by Tom Kalinski Founder RE/MAX of Boulder on Thursday, January 3rd, 2019 at 10:13am.

Posted on January 3, 2019 at 11:13 pm
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Boulder’s Economic Confidence Highest in U.S.

Boulder leads the nation for the most positive economic outlook, followed by two other Colorado cities in the top 10 — No. 3 Fort Collins and No. 9 Denver. According to the recent survey by Indeed.com, a positive economic outlook is driven largely by where you live more than by a national or political view of a national economy.

Colorado is the only state with three cities in Indeed’s top 10. Smaller mountain-state metro area residents performed well when surveyed about the economy and their personal outlook. Tech hubs also fared well, such as the San Francisco Bay Area, Austin, and Raleigh.

The following 10 U.S. cities have the highest economic confidence, according to Indeed.com:

  1.      Boulder, CO
  2.      Provo-Orem, UT
  3.      Fort Collins, CO
  4.      San Jose-Sunnyvale-Santa Clara, CA
  5.      Boise, ID
  6.      Ann Arbor, MI
  7.      San Francisco-Oakland-Hayward, CA
  8.      Austin, Round Rock, TX
  9.      Denver-Aurora-Lakewood, CO
  10.      Raleigh, NC

For the 2,000 American adults nationwide surveyed on politics and attitudes about the economy, local economic conditions such as lower unemployment, faster job growth, and a more educated workforce correlate with local economic confidence.

Nine percent describe their regional economic conditions as excellent and 51 percent say their economies are good. To analyze the local influence on economic perspective, Indeed combined answers to survey questions with data on local job markets. Five factors were found to drive local economic confidence:

  1. Personal finances – 81 percent of respondents rate their personal financial situation as excellent or good and say the same about local economic conditions.
  1. National economic view – 83 percent who rate national economics as excellent or good say the same about local economic conditions. The survey found that views of the national economic situation are also strongly influenced by politics, with 73 percent of Republicans and 43 percent of Democrats rating national economic conditions excellent or good.
  1. Local unemployment rate – Respondents in areas with lower unemployment rates have a more positive economic outlook. The outlook is likely driven by the view that a lower unemployment rate results in more job opportunities and bargaining power for workers, which should translate into faster wage growth.
  1. Higher local job growth – Job growth where you live means expanding opportunities and rising home prices. The majority of homeowners like this combined dynamic.
  1. Highly educated populations – For those who live in areas where a larger percentage of adults have a college degree – such as the Denver-metro area – there is a correlation with higher earnings and more spending power. 

People are more optimistic when they live in places that are doing well economically. That holds true for those who live in Colorado where unemployment rates continue to be among the lowest in the nation and job growth remains strong.

Yahoo Finance articlehttps://finance.yahoo.com/news/10-u-s-cities-highest-economic-confidence-170140863.html

Indeed’s full report at: https://www.hiringlab.org/2018/11/27/local-economic-confidence/

 

Originally posted here by Tom Kalinski Founder RE/MAX of Boulder on Tuesday, December 18th, 2018 at 10:18am.

Posted on December 19, 2018 at 10:54 pm
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Real Estate Conference Set to Explore Boulder Valley Challenges and Trends

The eleventh annual Boulder Valley Real Estate Conference offers a packed day Thursday, November 15, exploring trends, commercial impacts, and inventory shortages in Boulder County commercial and residential real estate.

Organized by BizWest with presenting sponsor RE/MAX of Boulder, the event delivers an intensive schedule of national keynote speakers and panels made up of local real estate experts and development officials.

More than 500 real estate professionals and anyone interested in the local real estate market are expected to attend. Attendees get insights into residential and commercial real estate activity and coming opportunities in Boulder and Broomfield counties.

The conference kicks off with local real estate expert Todd Gullette, RE/MAX of Boulder Managing Broker, discussing the latest sales and price statistics and implications for residential real estate across Boulder Valley. The commercial forecast follows, with Angela Topel, Gibbons-White Senior Broker, exploring major commercial developments, sales and vacancy statistics.

Future technology – now turned present – takes center stage when Jay Kalinski, Broker/Owner of RE/MAX of Boulder, moderates a panel of real estate banking and technology experts, exploring “The Impact of Blockchain” on residential real estate. Blockchain technologies enable a shared, nationwide database of houses on the market. The panel will look at how Blockchain platforms affect Boulder County’s housing market and how Realtors should respond.

“Big Tech Settles In” focuses on the local impact of the tech economy and examines the surging Boulder tech scene, including expansions by Google, Twitter, Microsoft and Uber.

Conference keynote address presents the outlook of Wells Fargo’s EVP of Housing Policy and Homeownership Growth Strategies, Brad Blackwell, and MetroStudy’s Senior Director West Region, John Covert.

Next up, “Breaking Ground” – back by popular demand – reveals commercial and residential developments in the Boulder Valley and beyond. A panel of city-employed development directors from Lafayette, Longmont, Louisville, Superior, Boulder, Erie and Broomfield provide a complete rundown of the region’s top projects.

“Wrestling with Supply” tackles the top challenge for Boulder-area residential real estate markets. Lack of housing inventory, issues with infill development, height limits, accessory-dwelling units and zoning conspire to cause a critical housing shortage. Moderated by Duane Duggan, RE/MAX of Boulder Realtor, the panel will discuss policy changes developers believe would address the problem.

“Icons of Real Estate” is back by popular demand. Featuring long-time successful real estate experts Tom Kalinski, Owner/Founder, RE/MAX of Boulder; Stephanie Iannone, Managing Broker, Housing Helpers; and Seth Chernoff, CEO, Chernoff Boulder Properties, audience members will ask questions to learn proven best practices and advice for success in commercial real estate.

The conference will be held from 9:00 am to 4:00 pm on Thursday, Nov. 15 at the Embassy Suites hotel, 2601 Canyon Blvd. in Boulder. Registration opens at 8:15 am. For details and to pre-register visit http://fallrealestateconference.com. Breakfast and lunch are included. The conference is open to anyone with an interest in Boulder Valley real estate. Conference attendees can earn six Van Education credits.

Conference details in this quick video: https://bit.ly/2PAsWQV

 

Originally posted here by Tom Kalinski Founder RE/MAX of Boulder on Tuesday, November 13th, 2018 at 3:40pm.

Posted on November 14, 2018 at 10:33 pm
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Colorado Economy Resurges, Adds Thousands More Jobs

Colorado’s economy continues to expand in 2018, even after signaling a slowdown at the beginning of the year. Job growth was revised upward to 2.4 percent growth for the year, according to the mid-year economic report from the Leeds Business Research Division at the University of Colorado Boulder.

The rebound follows a slowing of employment growth last September to less than 1.9 percent – the lowest level in almost six years. In June 2018, job growth increased 2.8 percent year-over-year.

The increase means about 15,000 more jobs than expected will be added through 2018, bringing the total to 62,000 new jobs by the end of the year.

The state’s gross domestic product also rose 4.5 percent year-over-year for first quarter 2018. The increase shows Colorado’s economy is continuing to grow after slowing to just 1.4 percent in 2016— the lowest level since 2010. Economic output rose to 3.6 percent in 2017.

Meanwhile, Colorado still has one of the lowest unemployment rates in the nation, logged in June 2018 at 2.7 percent. While fewer people have been moving to Colorado – dropping from 67,781 in 2016 to 46,626 in 2017 – more Coloradans are going into the labor force. The increase in workers has enabled continued employment growth, despite the decrease of people moving to the state.

Sectors leading the way in job growth are natural resources and mining, and construction.

Natural resources and mining have shown strong employment growth, according to Business Research Division Executive Director Richard Wobbekind. “Energy prices are obviously factoring into it,” Wobbekind notes.

The construction industry is “finally back to the same level of employment that they were at pre-recession.  They are really mostly constrained by lack of available workforce,” he says.

While a shortage of skilled labor continues to challenge the construction industry, Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows construction employment across the state was 171,200 in June 2018, a 5.2 percent year-over-year increase. This surpasses the last peak of 170,100 in July 2007. Average annual pay for construction workers was $59,446 in 2017, slightly above the average Colorado pay of $56,916.

Agriculture’s outlook is not as robust, however. Drought, wildfires, and low prices are slowing growth. For example, corn prices have declined more than 30 percent from five years ago.

“It’s a tough road to hoe in some of the rural areas,” Wobbekind said.

Read the full Mid-Year Economic Update at https://www.colorado.edu/business/2018/08/17/state-economy-adding-thousands-more-jobs-expected-report-predicts

 

Originally posted here by Tom Kalinski Founder RE/MAX of Boulder on Wednesday, October 31st, 2018 at 11:01am.

 

Posted on November 2, 2018 at 11:10 pm
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