Boulder County’s Future Bright, but Challenges Ahead

Good times in Boulder County and in Colorado will continue said local economic experts at the recent Boulder Economic Forecast. But they caution that 2018 may not reach the heights of 2017, and the difficulties could impact us well beyond next year.

Organized by the Boulder Chamber and the Boulder Economic Council, the 11th annual Boulder Economic Forecast was held on January 17 at the new Embassy Suites Hotel, and RE/MAX of Boulder was among the event’s sponsors.

“By almost every economic indicator we measure, 2017 was an historic year,” says Executive Director of the Boulder Economic Council Clif Harald in his opening remarks.

Statistics show a superlative year. Colorado ranked third in the country for the pace of GDP growth, while unemployment dropped to 2.5 percent, the second-lowest rate nationally. The state’s labor force soared with the fastest growth rate in the U.S., according to speaker Rich Wobbekind, Executive Director, Business Research Division, Leeds School of Business, CU-Boulder.

But, Harald noted that 2017 presented challenges, too. And, these challenges could escalate in the coming years.

He pointed to constraints for Boulder’s economy, including a shortage of labor and resources and high housing costs that cause long commutes for many Boulder County workers.

In his keynote address, Wobbekind called the labor shortage the area’s “biggest short-term challenge.”

While job growth in Boulder County continued in 2017, the pace slowed from the peak of 2014-15.

“Almost every industry sector reported lack of available labor or properly trained labor. This doesn’t go away,” Wobbekind says.

And chief among the factors impacting Boulder County: age.

Colorado State Demographer Elizabeth Garner says residents 65-and-older will represent 20 percent of residents by 2030. The 65+ group will be 77 percent larger than it was in 2015.

“We are aging fast,” says Garner, noting that the age wave will overtake the entire state.

Garner explains that demographics – and the age wave beginning to sweep the state – are an economic issue. As people retire, aging results in a labor shortage. When people choose to age in place, housing stock for people moving in or moving up is negatively impacted. Aging also impacts healthcare and public financing issues.

At the same time, those migrating here are typically ages 20-27 and never married. Total household income is below $50,000 for 80 percent; 65 percent earn less than $24,000. People move to Colorado for the jobs. But, Garner cautions, the biggest increase in jobs are those that are low- to medium- wage, while the cost of living is relatively high.

The highest income and spending group – 45- to 65- year-olds – is the smallest demographic in the state and in Boulder County. It also has the slowest growth rate and the numbers are declining.

In addition, diversity will increase as the Hispanic population is projected to grow from the current 20 percent to 30 percent by 2040.

Among the challenges and issues facing Boulder County and the state, Garner listed:

– Aging with its far reaching impact across the economy, housing, labor supply and healthcare. As the workforce ages and retires, Colorado could experience a natural decline;

-Disparate growth across the state with Colorado’s economy flourishing along the Front Range and 1-25 corridor, but far fewer gains in the rest of the state and rural areas;

-Attracting the best and brightest to Colorado;

-Population growing at slower rate, with a total population growth from 2015-2050 reaching 2.5 million along Front Range and 1.5 million in Denver;

Garner says Colorado’s population has increased by 578,000 since 2010, making it the eighth highest state in the U.S. for total growth.

Boulder County’s growth rate is the second lowest statewide. The population in-migration peaked in the 1990s. Garner notes that students move to Boulder for college, leave after graduation, then return, and then leave again. One key reason: As a young adult it’s hard to live, buy, and rent in Boulder.

Now, fewer young families live in Boulder, and the tide has shifted toward a higher number of deaths than births.

But the dynamics of Boulder County’s economy are strong, outperforming state and national economies in job growth and educational attainment.

Boulder County, though, has well-supported economic vitality, fueled by high concentrations of companies and employment in aerospace, biotechnology, cleantech, and information, according to Wobbekind.

The area’s high quality of life and business, and cultural and outdoor attractions appeal to a highly educated workforce and visionary entrepreneurs.

Incomes are above average. The median household income for Boulder County residents was $74,615 in 2016 compared to $65,685 for Colorado residents, according to data from the U.S. Census Bureau.

But Garner cautions that Colorado’s housing affordability is a big concern. The disparity between median home value and median income is the second-highest in the U.S., which fuels the labor shortage and decreases the ability for young families to live here.

For more information, see Boulder Economic Forecast presentations at:

http://bouldereconomiccouncil.org/bec_publications/2018-economic-forecast-presentations/

See Leeds School of Business, CU-Boulder’s Economic report at: https://www.colorado.edu/business/sites/default/files/attached-files/2018_colorado_business_economic_outlook.pdf

 

 
Posted on February 2, 2018 at 10:51 am
Jay Kalinski | Category: RE/MAX of Boulder | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Top Five Reasons to Sell Your Home Early in 2018

If you’re planning to sell your home this year, timing can make a big difference in your home’s final selling price.

Even though statistics show Boulder County’s real estate market remains among the hottest in the country, Realtor.com reports that your “window of opportunity may be rapidly narrowing.”

“We’ve seen two or three years of what could be considered unsustainable levels of price appreciation,” says Javier Vivas, director of economic research for realtor.com®.

The key word there is “unsustainable.” Changes on the near horizon suggest you should get going and be among the first to sell your home in 2018. Here are the top five reasons:

1. Interest rates remain historically low

While interest rates have already increased from the recent lows, today’s 30-year mortgage rates at just above 4 percent still draw buyers into the market.

But experts predict rates will rise to a less enticing five percent before the end of the year. With rate hikes expected to continue, you should list your home earlier in the year. You will not only sell your home more quickly, if you’re buying another home, you’ll benefit from the lower rates.

2. Inventory is tight and demand high

In the red-hot housing market of Boulder County, buyers far outnumber available homes for sale. Tight inventory is a trend that extends across the nation. And the housing shortage will likely get worse before it gets better: Realtor.com predicts inventory will see a decline of 4 percent year-over-year by March.

Inventory shortages result in quick sales, bidding wars, and pro-seller terms. This can be especially true in areas like Boulder County, where a prolonged shortage has persisted for years.

Cash buyers are also a factor, making up 22 percent of all home sales nationwide in November 2017, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

3. Home prices are still increasing

While home price increases in the Boulder area have moderated recently, prices are still rising. But with interest rates increasing, slowing price appreciation is expected to continue. By listing your home sooner rather than later, you’ll avoid the cooling trend.

4. Buyers are better off financially

“Incomes are growing and people are finding better and more stable jobs,” Vivas says. High consumer confidence, low unemployment, and stock market surges make buyers feel good about their financial outlook.

In fact, the Fed projects an unemployment rate of below 4 percent for the first time since the 1960s, reports Realtor.com.

All of this fuels home sales, which grew 5.6 percent nationally in November 2017, reaching its strongest pace in nearly 11 years.

5. Millennials want to buy

More and more millennials are entering their 30s, a time in which taking the homeownership plunge becomes increasingly desirable. Realtor.com data suggest that this demographic group could account for 43 percent of home buyers taking out a mortgage in 2018, equating a 3 percent year-over-year increase.

In a complex real estate market, local real estate knowledge helps you time the sale of your home to your best advantage. So, if you’re considering selling, consult with a Realtor soon.

You can read more at https://www.realtor.com/advice/sell/reasons-to-sell-your-home-in-2018/

 

Posted by Tom Kalinski Founder RE/MAX of Boulder on Friday, January 26th, 2018 at 11:15am.
Posted on January 30, 2018 at 8:45 pm
Jay Kalinski | Category: RE/MAX of Boulder | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Boulder-area market holding steady, proving strong demand eclipses low inventory

It’s beginning to look a lot like this year’s Boulder County real estate sales performance will outperform last year’s robust close. Year-over-year sales data for 2017 shows slight improvements compared to 2016, even with inventory at persistently low levels.

“It just proves that demand is strong and consistent,” says Ken Hotard, senior vice president of public affairs for the Boulder Area Realtor® Association.

Single-family home sales in the Boulder area improved 2.1 percent year-to-date through November 2017 compared to the prior year – 4,224 homes sold vs. 4,138.

And the sale of 1,377 condominiums and townhomes through November represented a 5.5 percent gain compared to the prior year’s 1,305 units sold.

“We saw year-over-year sales improvements, but the pull-back in November compared to October was more than average,” says Hotard.

He’s referring to the 7.9 percent drop in single-family home sales in November compared to October — 359 vs.  390 homes sold. Attached dwellings sold decreased 2.4 percent month-over-month with 123 units sold vs. 126.

Since the weather was excellent for house hunting, the pullback is likely indicative of more than the typical seasonal slowdown.

“Inventory is probably the culprit in the November pullback this year, which resulted in not only fewer sales, but also a softening of prices,” he says. When it comes to low inventory, there is “no end is in sight for the foreseeable future.”

Hotard believes price-softening is confined to higher end homes where inventories are larger and homes take twice as many days on the market before selling. “Lower priced homes are not affected,” he adds.

While buyer demand is strong, low inventory can’t supply that demand. November’s inventory is telling: Single-family homes for sale in the Boulder-area dropped 22.8 percent in November compared to October with 777 homes for sale vs. 1,006. Condos and townhomes felt the pinch slightly harder with a 24.7 percent drop for the month of November – 146 units vs. 194.

Mortgage interest deductions may diminish in importance as a result of the doubling of the standard deduction as part of recent tax reform legislation. The National Association of Realtors predicts only a small percent of homeowners will take advantage of the mortgage interest deduction in years to come because of that change.

 

*Photo courtesy of Edwin Andrade on Unsplash.com

Posted by Tom Kalinski Founder RE/MAX of Boulder on Friday, January 5th, 2018 at 10:15am.

Posted on January 16, 2018 at 5:38 pm
Jay Kalinski | Category: RE/MAX of Boulder | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Kalinski Team in the News 2014-2017

 

December 2017

BizWest: Boulder Valley 2018 real estate predictions

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Steady Sales Reflect Strength of Demand in Boulder County Market

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog:Denver Most Recovered City since Great Recession

 

November 2017

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Boulder County real estate sales chill along with fall temps

BizWest: Real Estate Conference to Explore Shifting Markets in Boulder Valley 

 

October 2017

BizWest: Why you should care about local MLS consolidation

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Balance Returns to Boulder County Real Estate

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Boulder County real estate sales chill along with fall temps

 

September 2017

BizWest: Why good real estate agents are becoming indispensable

Longmont Times-Call: Boulder County’s apartment boom shows no sign of slowing, even as vacancy rates rise

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Colorado Cities Rank High in Best Housing Market Analysis

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: How to Buy a Kiddie Condo Instead of Renting

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: August Housing Sales Move in Lock-Step with Inventory

 

August 2017

BizWest: Boulder Valley housing shifts to more-balanced market

 

July 2017

BizWest: It’s time for millennials to consider home ownership

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Boulder-Area Home Sales Rise While Summer Temps Sizzle

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Top 5 Reasons It’s Time Millennials Consider Home Ownership

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Must-Have Skills for Home Buying in Boulder County

 

June 2017

BizWest: Dual real estate market emerges in Boulder Valley

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Boulder-Area Home Sales Rise while Summer Temps Sizzle

 

May 2017

BizWest: Boulder Valley sees softening seller’s market

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: We’re Making a Vital Impact as “Miracle Office” for Children’s Hospital Colorado

atHome: New Colorado business filings up, future job levels rosy

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Boulder No. 1 for Most Stable Housing Market Three Years Running

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Boulder County home sales chill in April, inventory the driving factor

 

April 2017

BizWest: How far does your money go in Boulder Valley real estate?

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Spring Sun Shines on Boulder Home Sales

 

March 2017

BizWest: Why so many new apartments and so few new condominiums?

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Want to Buy Your First Home? Start Here.

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Boulder Condo/Townhome Sales Tick Upward

atHome: RE/MAX of Boulder awarded highest honor

Aging at Altitude insert from the Boulder Daily Camera: Selling the Family Home

 

February 2017

BizWest: Boulder still a seller’s market, but change could be coming

RE/MAX of Boulder: 2017 Boulder Area Real Estate Outlook

 

January 2017

BizWest: What increasing interest rates mean for local home buyers

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Best Cities for Job Seekers in 2017

 

December 2016

BizWest: Predictions for housing in the Boulder Valley

RE/MAX of Boulder Blog: Got a Smart Gadget in Your Home? Be Wary of Cybercrime.

 

November 2016

BizWest: Strong housing market continues, but some indicators softening

RISMedia: Appealing to Younger Clients in Today’s Competitive Market

 

September 2016

BizWest: Home buyers should exercise caution to avoid fraudulent mortgage wires

 

August 2016

BizWest: Now is the time for buyers in Boulder Valley

 

July 2016

atHome: RE/MAX of Boulder embraces businesses and the community

BizWest: Boulder average single-family home price tops $1M

 

June 2016

BizWest: How long can Boulder County’s steep appreciation last?

 

May 2016

BizWest: Robust seller’s market continues, but buyers have hope

 

April 2016

Daily Camera: Boulder County Business Hall of fame inducts 2016 class

BizWest: Boulder County Business Hall of Famers credit families for success

Daily Camera: As “monster” homes rise, should Boulder trade size for density?

BizWest: This is no housing bubble, and no end is in sight

 

March 2016

BizWest: For home buyers, Longmont’s time has come

 

February 2016

BizWest: 2015 housing recap a historic-sellers-market

 

January 2016

BizWest: 2016 Boulder Valley forecast bright for home sellers

 

2015 and Previous

BizWest: Five reasons to buy in boulder now if you can

atHome, Daily Camera: RE/MAX of Boulder Truly Means Community

Finisher party gets to heart of Ironman

Realtor Mag: Brand Stand 7/23/14

BizWest: Re/Max office opens on Pearl Street Mall

Realtor Mag: Make the Right Hire for Fiscal Stability

Posted on January 11, 2018 at 11:47 pm
Jay Kalinski | Category: Articles | Tagged , , , , , , , , , , , , ,